Watchdog groups call review at US nuclear lab 'sham' process — Susan Montoya Brown, Associated Press
The U.S. government is planning to review the environmental effects of operations at one of the nation's prominent nuclear weapons laboratories, but its notice issued Friday leaves out federal goals to ramp up production of plutonium cores used in the nation's nuclear arsenal.
The National Nuclear Security Administration said the review — being done to comply with the National Environmental Policy Act — will look at the potential environmental effects of alternatives for operations at Los Alamos National Laboratory for the next 15 years.
That work includes preventing the spread and use of nuclear weapons worldwide and other projects related to national security and global stability, the notice said.
Watchdog groups contend that regardless of the review, the NNSA will march ahead with its production plans for plutonium cores at Los Alamos.
The northern New Mexico lab — part of the top secret Manhattan Project during World War II and the birthplace of the atomic bomb — is one of two sites tapped for the lucrative mission of manufacturing the plutonium cores. The other is the Savannah River Site in South Carolina.
Democratic members of New Mexico's congressional delegation fought to ensure Los Alamos would be among the benefactors of the billions of dollars and thousands of jobs that will stem from the mission.
The U.S. Energy Department had set deadlines for 2026 and 2030 for ramping up production of the plutonium cores, but it's unclear whether those will be met given the billions of dollars in infrastructure improvements still needed.
Watchdog groups that have been critical of Los Alamos accused the NNSA of going through the motions rather than taking a hard look at the escalating costs of preparing for production, the future consequences to the federal budget and the potential environmental fallout for neighboring communities and Native American tribes.
"This is too little too late, a sham process designed to circumvent citizen enforcement of the National Environmental Policy Act," said Jay Coghlan, executive director of Nuclear Watch New Mexico. "The key sentence in NNSA's announcement is that absent any new decisions in the site-wide environmental impact statement, the agency will continue to implement decisions it previously made behind closed doors."
The Los Alamos Study Group, another New Mexico-based organization that monitors lab activities, said there is no indication that NNSA will pause any preparations for the sake of complying with National Environmental Policy Act, which mandates some scrutiny before moving ahead with major federal projects.
The group pointed to more than $19 billion in new construction and operational costs for Los Alamos' new plutonium core production mission through fiscal year 2033. They say the price tag is expected to grow.
According to planning documents related to the sprawling Los Alamos campus, lab officials have indicated that they need more than 4 million square feet (371,612 square meters) of new construction to bolster one of its main technical areas and the area where the lab's plutonium operations are located. Several thousand new staff members also would be needed.
"This is a completely bogus process in which NNSA seeks to create a veneer of legitimacy and public acceptance for its reckless plans," said Greg Mello, director of the Los Alamos Study Group.
The NNSA noted that it conducted in 2020 a supplemental analysis of a 2008 sitewide environmental impact statement focused on infrastructure and capability increases needed for the lab to make 30 plutonium cores per year.
Toni Chiri, a spokeswoman with the NNSA's field office in Los Alamos, said it's time for a new review to cover alternative activities to meet what she described as the "full suite" of the lab's mission.
"NNSA looks forward to engaging the public, governments and other stakeholders and receiving their input on the process and outcome," she said in an email.
People have until Oct. 3 to comment on the scope of the planned review.
N.M. seeking ideas for how to spend Gold King Mine settlement, but no direct cash to individuals - Patrick Lohmann, Source New Mexico
New Mexico is accepting applications to help it spend $10 million in settlement money from the Gold King Mine Spill, which turned rivers yellow in 2015 and caused immense economic and environmental damage in the region.
But some lawmakers in Northwest New Mexico on Tuesday questioned during a legislative meeting why the funds can only be given to governments or nonprofits on behalf of those affected, not directly to farmers or others affected by the spill on an individual basis.
State officials charged with administering the settlement cited the state’s anti-donation clause as reason. But they said the programs they hope to fund will help restore the watershed and commerce in the region.
On Aug. 5, 2015, contractors for the Environmental Protection Agency were monitoring seepage in the abandoned Gold King Mine near Silverton, Colorado. They excavated an area above a mine opening, and the bedrock collapsed, releasing 3 millions gallons of waste into a tributary of the Animas River.
The water, tainted by tailings from gold mining that ended in the 1990s, flooded the Animas River and San Juan River watersheds and turned their waters bright yellow. The tailings contained heavy metals like cadmium and lead, plus other toxic elements like arsenic, iron and copper.
The communities in the Four Corners suffered in major, measurable ways while the plume floated down the river. Farmers on the Navajo Nation and areas around Farmington couldn’t irrigate. No one used the river for recreation or fishing.
Since the spill in 2015, tribal and state leaders in Colorado andNew Mexico brought several lawsuits seeking compensation from the mine owners, the EPA contractors and the EPA. In June, state leaders gathered in Farmington to announce a $32 million settlement with the EPA.
The water is now safe for agricultural or recreational use, but state leaders say a stigma remains that continues to hurt to farmers and keeps tourists away.
Under the settlement agreement announced in June, the United States will reimburse New Mexico $18.1 million for costs in responding to the emergency, $10 million for restoration of natural resources and $3.5 million more to enhance state water quality and cleanup. The Navajo Nation also got a separate $31 million settlement.
Of the state’s windfall, the $10 million for restoration is being overseen by New Mexico Natural Resources Trustee Maggie Hart Stebbins.
The money is available to local governments and state agencies for restoring or replacing natural resources or services they provide, including outdoor recreation and farming. Non-governmental entities are encouraged to partner with public agencies, according to a release Aug. 12 from Stebbins office.
The New Mexico Natural Resources Trustee has also already identified four projects with $1 million it received from an $11 million settlement with mining companies whose tailings caused the mess. Those projects are for soil health restoration in San Juan County, an irrigation system project in Tse Dáá K’áán Chapter, a new boat ramp on the Animas River and a farmer’s market pavilion in Farmington.
At a legislative hearing about the settlement this week, Rep. Anthony Allison (D-Fruitland) said he hears from individual farmers and families all the time who are suffering, and he wondered why the settlement money could not just go directly to them.
“Has any of this money ever been thought of to be given to the people that actually suffered? The loss of crops? The loss of the joy of farming?” he said. “I know it went through the coffers of the state of New Mexico, but the individuals out there are still suffering.”
Stebbins, in response, said the state’s anti-donation clause prohibits that type of individual compensation. The clause is an anti-corruption measure meant to ensure state appropriations go for public uses, not to enrich private entities or individuals.
“But what we do intend to do is fund programs with broad public impact that benefit farmers, people engaged in the outdoor recreation industry, any of the communities that were affected by the Gold King mine in the way that you have described,” she said.
Allison suggested there should be an exception made to the anti-donation clause specifically for farmers affected by the spill. Such a change would require an amendment to the state Constitution, which would need to be approved by both chambers of the Legislature and also voters.
Allison previously pushed for another amendment to the anti-donation clause earlier this year to allow the state to connect individual homes to electricity and other utilities. The measure passed both chambers of the Legislature and is now heading to voters on Nov. 8.
Employees at Santa Fe Starbucks store to pursue unionizing — Associated Press
Workers at a Santa Fe Starbucks are taking steps to unionize.
The Santa Fe New Mexican reports employees at the location on St. Michael's Drive notified CEO Howard Schultz earlier this week that they filed a petition to unionize with the National Labor Relations Board.
In a letter to Schultz, workers say they "have been without proper support and management" and are often asked to do the work of two or more people in back-to-back shifts.
This is the first Starbucks in Santa Fe to initiate unionizing efforts. Only one other store in New Mexico has done it. An Albuquerque branch formally filed a petition in July.
More than 220 U.S. Starbucks stores that have voted to unionize since late last year. The coffee giant opposes the unionization effort.
A federal judge on Thursday ordered Starbucks to reinstate seven employees in Memphis who were fired earlier this year after leading an effort to unionize their store.
Starbucks, which claimed the staffers were fired for violating safety rules, said it will appeal.
Roosevelt County woman, 82, fatally hit by neighbor's pickup — Associated Press
PORTALES, N.M. (AP) — New Mexico State Police say an elderly woman in Roosevelt County has died after she was hit by a vehicle driven by an elderly neighbor.
Authorities say the incident happened Thursday around noon as 82-year-old Virginia Poe was checking her mail at her home outside Portales.
Her 88-year-old neighbor was driving a GMC pickup truck with an empty flatbed trailer attached. Police say he stopped along the road to chat with Poe.
After they finished, the neighbor drove onto Poe's property to make a U-turn.
Investigators say the trailer hit Poe, who was still standing just off the road by her mailbox, as he entered the roadway.
Paramedics transported the woman to the hospital, where she was pronounced dead.
State Police say alcohol does not appear to be a factor. The investigation remains ongoing.
Oil, gas revenues to drive New Mexico's next budget windfall - Associated Press
Projected revenues for the next budget year are expected to deliver another windfall to New Mexico's coffers.
New estimates released Wednesday by legislative and executive economists during a meeting of the Legislative Finance Committee in Chama show lawmakers will have a projected $2.5 billion in new money. That's the difference between current spending levels and expected revenues in the next fiscal year.
Some lawmakers say the budget windfall represents an opportunity for New Mexico to change is trajectory and avert the big swings between spending growth followed by cuts that have been common over the past decade. However, other lawmakers and top budget officials cautioned that the recent revenue growth will likely not be sustainable in the long term.
Rep. Patricia Lundstrom, a Gallup Democrat who chairs the committee, said year-over-year spending growth should be kept in line with the state's annual average over the past decade.
State spending already has increased by about 30% over the past three-plus years. Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is running for reelection, signed off this year on a $8.5 billion spending plan that included raises for teachers and state police officers and tax rebates for state residents.
This latest revenue surge could prompt a feeding frenzy in a state with high Medicaid enrollment levels, roads and bridges in need of repair, and a public school system that for years has been among the worst-ranked in the nation.
Sen. George Muñoz, also from Gallup and chair of the Senate Finance Committee, said the top priority should be revamping the state's tax structure.
"If we want to really change, for once and for all, and keep our commitment to reducing tax rates, lowering the (gross receipts tax and) making New Mexico competitive with other states, this is one of the greatest opportunities we could have," he said.
The state also is expected to see a budget surplus of nearly $3.8 billion for the current fiscal year and about $2.6 billion is set to flow into a state early childhood trust fund.
But Finance and Administration Secretary Debbie Romero warned lawmakers that they will have to consider supply chain issues, a possible economic recession and volatility in the global energy market as risks to the state's revenue forecast.
Spending growth under Lujan Grisham has drawn criticism from Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Ronchetti, who has said he would push to use surplus funds for annual rebates and tax cuts if elected.
Lujan Grisham sought to take credit for the record-high revenue levels, saying they were the result of her administration's policies and "the healthy economic climate we are fostering."
Oil production concentrated in the state's corner of the Permian Basin is driving the boom. Roughly two-thirds of the projected revenue growth for the coming budget year is expected to come directly from oil and natural gas receipts.
Ismael Torres, the committee's chief economist, said New Mexico is the only state that has recovered to pre-pandemic levels of oil production. The state is projected to produce 590 million barrels of oil during the current budget year.
While oil and gas is New Mexico's biggest source of income, other sectors also are projected to flourish in the next fiscal year. Manufacturing, for example, is expected to grow 41%, and economists are forecasting a 27% increase in leisure and hospitality services.
State economists also noted that inflation is driving up gross receipts tax collections as a result of rising costs for food, construction materials and other goods and services, as well as personal income taxes linked to higher wages.
Navajo Nation Council spokesman arrested after relative hurt - Associated Press
The communications director for the Navajo Nation Council has been arrested for allegedly injuring a relative at his Gallup home, the Gallup Independent reported.
Alray Nelson, 36, is facing charges of aggravated battery, and evading or obstructing an officer, the newspaper reported. Nelson serves as the spokesman for the tribe's legislative branch and also is the executive director of Navajo Nation Pride, a group that has been advocating for lawmakers on the reservation to legalize gay marriage.
According to court documents, Nelson pushed one of his relatives down a set of stairs Monday, causing that person to hit their head on a glass coffee table and was briefly knocked unconscious. The relative was taken by ambulance to a local hospital and treated, the Gallup Independent reported.
A Gallup police officer had responded to a call of a possible domestic disturbance at Nelson's home and saw a large hole in the wall in front of a stairwell. Nelson's injured relative was on the floor, according to a criminal complaint.
The police officer said Nelson declined to speak without an attorney present, according to court documents.
Nelson told The Associated Press he was released from jail Thursday but declined to comment on the case, other than to say "I am remorseful and sorry this happened."
The Navajo Nation legislative branch did not immediately respond to a message left Thursday by the AP.
Crisis looms without big cuts to over-tapped Colorado River - By Sam Metz And Kathleen Ronayne Associated Press
Hydroelectric turbines may stop turning. Las Vegas and Phoenix may be forced to restrict water usage or growth. Farmers might cease growing some crops, leaving fields of lettuce and melons to turn to dust.
Those are a few of the dire consequences that could result if states, cities and farms across the American West cannot agree on how to cut the amount of water they draw from the Colorado River.
Yet for years, seven states that depend on the river have allowed more water to be taken from it than nature can replenish. Despite widespread recognition of the crisis, the states missed a deadline this week to propose major cuts that the federal government has said are necessary.
And again, the government failed to force harsh decisions and stopped short of imposing the cuts on its own, despite previous threats to do so.
Any unilateral action from federal officials would likely move conversations from negotiating tables to courtrooms and delay action even longer.
The river, which cascades from the Rockies down to the deserts of the Southwest, quenches the thirst of 40 million people in the U.S. and Mexico and sustains a $15 billion-a-year agricultural industry.
But for a century, agreements governing how it's shared have been based on faulty assumptions about how much water is available. With climate change making the region hotter and drier, that discrepancy is becoming impossible to ignore.
Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the two largest reservoirs that hold Colorado River water, have fallen to dangerously low levels faster than anyone expected. The decline threatens to disrupt hydroelectric power production and water sent to cities and farms.
Though everyone agrees the stakes are high, states and the U.S. government have struggled to reach a consensus on what to do.
People have "been hoping to stave off this day," said Felicia Marcus, a former top water official in California, which holds the largest right to the river's water. "But now I think we can't expect Mother Nature to bail us out next year. The time for some of these really hard decisions is now."
The river is also tapped by Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Mexico and some tribes.
For years, officials have issued warnings about the state of the river, but also reassured people that the system won't crash. That two-part message was front and center this week, when the states failed to meet a deadline set by the Bureau of Reclamation for them to propose 15% to 30% cuts to their water use.
As the deadline passed Tuesday, the potentially dramatic moment amounted to a shrug. Officials said they still have faith the states will reach a deal if given more time.
Visiting California the next day, Reclamation Commissioner Camille Touton repeatedly dodged questions about what might happen next. She's given no specifics about what the bureau's more aggressive actions might look like, or when they might happen.
The federal government, she said, "is ready to move forward on our own." But officials "will continue to talk to everybody about what the process is."
Not everyone is satisfied with that approach.
"I'm asking them to at least lay out very clearly how that threat will be imposed," Southern Nevada Water Authority General Manager John Entsminger said.
Entsminger and his counterparts in Arizona, Utah and California, as well as local officials in and around Phoenix, also repeated what has become a common refrain: They said they were gravely concerned about river's future, yet wanted to reassure their water users that the river won't stop flowing imminently.
"This is not a situation where people should be concerned about, you know, water running out in days or weeks or even months. But it's very clear that this entire river system is experiencing something that's never happened before," said Wade Crowfoot, California's natural resources secretary.
The cuts would force hard decisions about who has to live with less. Water bills could rise as states tap other sources and adopt technology such as wastewater recycling to make up the difference.
In some places, officials have voluntarily implemented strict conservation measures, including limiting lawn watering and paying farmers not to plant fields, even banning new water hookups. The climate legislation signed Tuesday by President Joe Biden provides $4 billion that could be used to pay Colorado River users to cut back, but it's not clear how that would work.
The river's shrinkage has inflamed tensions between Rocky Mountain states and their downstream neighbors over who should shoulder the burden. It also pits growing cities against agricultural regions.
In Pinal County, Arizona, Kelly Anderson grows specialty crops for the flower industry and leases land to alfalfa farmers whose crops feed cattle at nearby dairy farms. He expects about half of the area to go unplanted next year, after farmers in the region lose all access to the river.
Though farmers use most of the water, they have less wiggle room to conserve than cities, which can more easily recycle water or tap other sources. The river is a lifeblood in places like California's Imperial Valley, which grows vegetables like broccoli, onions and carrots. Water shortages could send ripple effects throughout the food system.
States aren't the only ones at the table. Native American tribes hold some of the oldest water rights and occupy a unique position in negotiations because the federal government is required to protect their interests.
The Colorado River Indian Tribes along the Arizona-California border have contributed water to boost Lake Mead in the past. They could be called on again.
"Our senior rights do not mean we can or should sit on the sidelines," Colorado River Indian Tribes Chairwoman Amelia Flores said. "We won't let this river die."
Upper basin states — Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming — argue that they shouldn't face cuts because they historically haven't used all the water they were promised a century ago.
They want to protect their share in anticipation of population growth and haven't pursued policies that save water as much as states like Arizona and Nevada.
Zach Frankel, executive director of the Utah Rivers Council, said many in the Rockies cling to an erroneous belief that their water rights are safe, cuts will continue to hit their downstream neighbors and one wet winter could reverse the river's decline.
"If we don't agree about what the crisis is, we're not going to have the impetus to come up with a solution," he said.
Arizona, Nevada and California say they're willing to put water or money on the table, but so far that hasn't been enough to yield an agreement.
A growing chorus of veteran officials and environmental advocates say both the states and the federal government are sending muddled messages by stressing the gravity of the situation yet delaying meaningful action.
James Eklund, an attorney and former director of the Upper Colorado River Commission, said the shrinking reservoirs present an opportunity to rethink how to manage the river and incentivize conservation — if only officials will take it.
Bureaucrats, he said, continue to think they can postpone changes. The problem is "that doesn't really work here because no action means we're driving toward a cliff."
Governor praises health care workers as she further lifts COVID protections - By Austin Fisher, Source New Mexico
At an awards ceremony for health care workers at a high-end hotel with a cocktail dress code on Tuesday night, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham praised their collective effort to save lives from COVID.
“We stood up testing. We stood up vaccinations. We stood it all up. Nobody pointed at one other group and said, ‘Your job there,’ ‘Your job, something else.’ It was all a collective,” Lujan Grisham said. “In fact, to the best of my knowledge, we’re the only state that responded in that collective that held together — even when, frankly, we were too exhausted to hold it together.”
Inside the Grand Ballroom at the Clyde Hotel in downtown Albuquerque, Lujan Grisham’s Health Secretary Dr. David Scrase said she has really high standards and demanded excellence from health officials.
“She wanted not to just be No. 1, but she was possessed with saving lives and us doing everything we possibly could to save lives,” Scrase said. “I’m really grateful to the governor for setting those standards and driving us to them.”
Deputy Health Secretary and acting State Epidemiologist Dr. Laura Parajon said Lujan Grisham comforted health officials and gave them a way forward during the uncertainty of the pandemic’s early days.
“She made it super clear to us that her mission was to protect New Mexicans,” Parajon said. “And she courageously put politics aside and did everything she could to safeguard the lives of New Mexicans.”
The comments from Lujan Grisham and Health Department officials bookended the presentation of awards to 15 people for actions they took to save lives during the pandemic so far.
Masks were not required at the event but were subtly encouraged (a pack of KN95s was left at each table). There were no checks for vaccination status.
The room was well-ventilated throughout the event, according to a CO2 monitor Source New Mexico brought inside.
Lujan Grisham, who said she was suffering from a “bum knee” that gave out minutes before her speech, is seeking to portray herself as “the health care candidate” in her reelection bid.
In a campaign ad broadcast Wednesday, Albuquerque endocrinologist Dr. Christina Lovato said Lujan Grisham has saved thousands of lives during the COVID-19 pandemic, capped insulin costs, ended mental health copays and is working to import lower cost medicine from Canada.
Policy not stopping the spread
The awards ceremony came six days after the first day of the fall semester for New Mexico students and four days after the public education system further lifted COVID protections following the lead of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Under the New Mexico public health order signed on Aug. 12, school districts and charter schools are no longer required to report staff surveillance testing data through the Department of Health Provider Portal for COVID; social distancing is recommended but not required; and school districts are no longer required to participate in the Test to Stay program.
DOH Infectious Disease Bureau Director Dr. Miranda Durham said while vaccinations are saving lives, “they don’t necessarily get rid of cases.”
New Mexico has done awesome with vaccines, she said, but “we do lag with boosters, across all age groups.”
As of Tuesday, 72% of eligible New Mexican adults had received a booster shot, 31% of New Mexican children had completed their primary series, and only 6% of the youngest children had gotten their first dose, according to DOH.
“Our kids are going back to school, and there’s no masking anymore in schools,” Durham said. “This is, I think, a really at-risk population.”
In new guidance for schools, the CDC recommends universal indoor masking in schools, early care and education programs in communities at a high “COVID-19 community level.” Regardless of level, the CDC recommends masking in all health care settings, including school nurses’ offices.
As of Wednesday, that included Bernalillo, Sandoval, Valencia, Cibola, McKinley, De Baca, Roosevelt, Curry, Quay, Grant and Hidalgo counties. Together, those counties account for more than half of the state’s population.
Under the CDC’s previous “community transmission level” map, the CDC would have recommended universal indoor masking in every county in New Mexico other than Harding.
The first day of school for students was Aug. 10. The New Mexico Public Education Department said in an Aug. 12 news release it is working on an updated toolkit to align with the CDC guidance and the new health order.
No local government or school district in New Mexico has implemented its own local mask mandate.
That’s because the federal government sets the tone for state and local governments, said Kristin Urquiza, founder of Marked by COVID, a survivors’ advocacy network. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have set the tone for the rest of the country, she said.
“I do think there’s culpability throughout the chain,” she said. “Ultimately the fish rots from the head.”
Right now, the tone is “COVID is over,” Urquiza said, despite the fact that we are in a deadly surge where about 500 people in the U.S. are dying each day, according to the New York Times.
“Two years ago — a year ago — this would not have been acceptable,” she said. “It’s still not acceptable, and we should not be normalizing this amount of death, as well as disability.”
That tone was palpable at the awards ceremony. Speakers repeatedly referred to the pandemic in past tense, and the event’s emcee Pamela Blackwell, director of government relations and communications for the New Mexico Hospital Association, said we are entering “a new phase of this uncharted journey.”
Scrase’s final remark in his acceptance speech was that every single person who did anything to reduce the spread of COVID has helped to save lives.
But Urquiza said the CDC’s COVID guidance continues to walk back protections to control spread of COVID. The guidance is not informed by data showing the importance of protecting the lives of people who are at higher risk of severe or fatal COVID, Urquiza said, including elderly, immunocompromised and medically vulnerable people.
The federal government’s vaccine and treatment plan cuts those communities out of the equation, she said, because it doesn’t address keeping transmission rates low. For those individuals, it’s more probable that if they contract COVID, they would have more severe COVID, irrespective of vaccination status or what treatments are available to them, she said.
People living with chronic illness also fall into the category of those who are at high risk of severe COVID, Urquiza said, and the recommendations from the Biden administration and the CDC “really ignore the needs of those individuals.”
“Teachers, administrators, parents, school nurses, are terrified of what’s about to happen as schools are reopening,” she said. “School nurses will be on the frontlines of the explosion of cases that they will inevitably see as a result of school districts moving further and further away from masking, given these CDC guidelines.”
Climate bill's unlikely beneficiary: US oil and gas industry - By Matthew Brown And Michael Phillis Associated Press
The U.S. oil industry hit a legal roadblock in January when a judge struck down a $192 million oil and natural gas lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico over future global warming emissions from burning the fuels. It came at a pivotal time for Chevron, Exxon and other industry players: the Biden administration had curtailed opportunities for new offshore drilling, while raising climate change concerns.
The industry's setback was short-lived, however. The climate measure President Joe Biden signed Tuesday bypasses the administration's concerns about emissions and guarantees new drilling opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska. The legislation was crafted to secure backing from a top recipient of oil and gas donations, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, and was shaped in part by industry lobbyists.
While the Inflation Reduction Act concentrates on clean energy incentives that could drastically reduce overall U.S. emissions, it also buoys oil and gas interests by mandating leasing of vast areas of public lands and off the nation's coasts. And it locks renewables and fossil fuels together: If the Biden administration wants solar and wind on public lands, it must offer new oil and gas leases first.
As a result, U.S. oil and gas production and emissions from burning fuels could keep growing, according to some industry analysts and climate experts. With domestic demand sliding, that means more fossil fuels exported to growing foreign markets, including from the Gulf where pollution from oil and gas activity plagues many poor and minority communities.
To the industry, the new law signals Democrats are willing to work with them and to abandon the notion fossil fuels could soon be rendered obsolete, said Andrew Gillick with Enverus, an energy analytics company whose data is used by industry and government agencies.
"The folks that think oil and gas will be gone in 10 years may not be thinking through what this means," Gillick said. "Both supply and demand will increase over the next decade."
The result would be more planet-warming carbon dioxide — up to 110 million tons annually — from U.S.-produced oil and gas by 2030, with most coming from fuel burned after export, according to some economists and analysts.
A Department of Energy analysis obtained by The Associated Press Thursday said the law's leasing provisions "may lead to some increase" in carbon pollution, but that other provisions would cut 35 tons of greenhouse gas for every new ton of fossil fuel pollution.
The law reinstates within 30 days the 2,700-square miles of Gulf leases that had been withheld. It ensures companies like Chevron will have the chance to expand and overrides the concerns of U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras that the government was "barreling full-steam ahead" without adequately considering global emission increases.
The measure's importance was underscored by Chevron executives during a recent earnings call, where they predicted continued growth in the Gulf and tied that directly to being able "to lease and acquire additional acreage."
The fossil fuel industry's ambitions are now directly linked to wind and solar development: The bill prohibits leasing of federal lands and waters for renewable energy unless the government has offered at least 2 million acres of public land and 60 million acres in federal waters for oil and gas leasing during the prior year. The law does not require leases to be sold, only offered for sale.
The measure's critics say that's holding renewables hostage unless the fossil fuel industry gets its way. Some accuse Biden and Democrats of abandoning pledges to confront the industry.
"It's 10 more years of mandatory leases," said Brett Hartl with the Center for Biological Diversity. "We will do our damnedest but it's hard to fight them all."
Communities near polluting industrial plants will continue to suffer if the oil and gas industry remains vibrant, said Beverly Wright, executive director of the Deep South Center for Environmental Justice and a member of the White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council. She worries that incentives in the law for technology that captures carbon from industrial processes could also perpetuate harm to these poor, mostly minority residents.
In Louisiana's St. James Parish, where petrochemical plants dominate the landscape, environmental justice activist Sharon Lavigne said the legislation will allow pollution from fossil fuels to keep harming her community.
"That's just like saying they're going to continue to poison us, going to continue to cause us cancer," said Lavigne, a former high school teacher who founded the group Rising St. James.
The leasing provisions mark a failure in efforts by environmentalists and social justice advocates to impose a nationwide leasing ban. The movement's high point came when Biden followed campaign pledges to end new drilling on federal lands with an order his first week in office suspending lease sales.
U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty in Lake Charles, Louisiana blocked Biden's order nationwide last year. A federal appeals court Wednesday struck down Doughty's ruling, then Thursday he issued a new injunction saying lease sales can't be stopped in the 13 states that opposed Biden's policy.
A stream of potential drilling sites is crucial for companies to maintain future production because wells can take years to develop and some yield nothing, said Jim Noe, an industry lobbyist who worked with Senate staff on the climate bill's leasing provisions.
"The industry is in constant need — almost like a treadmill — of lease sales," said Noe, an attorney at Holland & Knight who represented offshore oil and gas companies. Noe said demand for oil and gas won't decline immediately and Gulf drilling brings jobs and more energy security.
A United Nations report before Biden took office warned that the U.S. and other nations need to sharply decrease investments in oil, gas and coal to keep temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times.
Other bill provisions that focus on renewable energy and capturing carbon dioxide from industrial plants would result in net emission reductions 10 to 50 times greater than emission increases from burning more oil and gas, analysts say.
The increase in oil and gas emissions still could be substantial — as much as 77 million to 110 million tons of additional carbon dioxide annually by 2030 from new leasing, according to economist Brian Prest with the research group Resources for the Future.
Other experts had lower projections: The San Francisco-based climate research group Energy Innovation predicted up to 55 million tons of additional carbon dioxide annually from new leasing. Researchers from Princeton and Dartmouth said the impact could be negligible or as much as 22 million tons in the U.S., plus much more abroad.
Any increase hinges on global oil and natural gas prices staying high — and that in turn depends on a range of factors including the ongoing war in Ukraine, said Robbie Orvis with Energy Innovation.
"It may increase oil and gas production somewhat, but that is very much offset by all of the other pieces of the bill," Orvis said.
Yet there's uncertainty about how quickly other pieces of the bill could bring emission cuts. Wind and solar construction could run into the supply chain problems hindering many economic sectors. And technology to capture and store carbon dioxide is still being refined and is in limited use.
Other provisions could make it potentially more expensive to drill on public lands and waters. There are modest increases in royalty and rental rates and a new $5-per-acre fee when companies want particular parcels offered for lease. Another fee would require companies to pay for natural gas, or methane, that enters the atmosphere as a potent greenhouse gas.
The higher costs could dampen interest among companies, said Mark Squillace, a natural resources law professor at University of Colorado Law School.
"Even though the industry is going to be getting more oil and gas leasing if they want it, it's an interesting question: Do they want it?" Squillace asked.